National House Price Index ‘continues to decline’ to 5.8% year-on-year in December

S&P/Case-Schiller Released monthly house price indices for December (“December” is the 3-month average of closing prices in October, November and December).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and a monthly national index.

From S&P: The decline in the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller index continued in December

The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller NSA National House Price Index, covering all nine US Census divisions, reported 5.8% annual increase in December, up from 7.6% the previous month. The 10-City Composite was up 4.4% year-over-year, up from 6.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.6% year-on-year growth compared to 6.8% in the previous month.

Miami, Tampa and Atlanta reported the highest annual gains among 20 cities in December. Miami leads the way with a 15.9% year-on-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 13.9% increase and Atlanta in third with a 10.4% increase. All 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending December 2022 compared to the year ending November 2022.

Pre-seasonally adjusted, the US National Index posted a -0.8% mom decline in December, while the 10-City and 20-City Composite posted declines of -0.8% and -0.9%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the US National Index showed a decrease compared to the previous month by -0.3%, while the composite index of 10 cities and 20 cities showed a decrease of -0.4% and -0.5%, respectively.

In December, all 20 cities reported declines both before and after seasonal adjustment.

“The house price chill that began in June 2022 continued through the end of the year as December marked the sixth straight month of decline in our National Composite Index,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director of S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index fell -0.8% in December and is now 4.4% below its June peak. For 2022 as a whole, the National Composite is up 5.8%, the 15th best performance in our 35-year history, although clearly well below the record 2021 growth of 18.9%. We could record similar observations in 10- and 20-City Composites.

“Prices fell in all 20 cities in December, with an average decline of -1.1%. Moreover, for all 20 cities, annual growth in December (median 4.4%) was lower than in November (median 6.4%). Last month, we noted that San Francisco home prices have fallen from a year ago. In December, San Francisco’s decline deepened (-4.2% y/y); Its west coast neighbors Seattle (-1.8%) and Portland (+1.1%) are once again bottom of the rankings.

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Case-Schiller House Price Indices Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

The first chart shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 Index, Composite 20 Index and National Indices (Composite 20 Index was launched in January 2000).

The Composite 10 Index is down 0.4% in December (SA) and down 4.3% from its recent peak in June 2022.

The Composite 20 Index was down 0.5% (SA) in December and 4.4% below its recent peak in June 2022.

The National Index was down 0.3% (SA) in December and 2.7% below its June 2022 peak.

Case-Schiller House Price Indices The second graph shows the change in all three indices on an annualized basis.

Composite 10 SA is up 4.4% year over year. Composite 20 SA is up 4.7% year-over-year.

The national SA index rose 5.8% year on year.

Annual price growth was lower than expected. I will have more later.

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