Market Talk – March 7, 2023


Asia:

India’s domestic economy is its main driver of growth, and the slowdown in economic activity late last year will only be temporary, Moody’s Analytics said Tuesday. Citing that private consumption lags overall GDP for the first time since the Covid-19 delta wave hit the economy in the second quarter of 2021, Moody’s Analytics notes in its Emerging Markets Outlook report that growth has slowed substantially since last. year. . It is noteworthy that the Indian economy grew by 13.2% in April-June and by 6.3% in July-September. While India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to a three-quarter low of 4.4 percent in October-December 2022, according to government data.

Today was a mixed day for major Asian stock markets:

  • The NIKKEI 225 was up 71.38 points, or 0.25%, at 28,309.16.
  • Shanghai fell 36.93 points or -1.11% to 3285.10.
  • The Hang Seng shed 68.71 points or -0.33% to hit 20,534.48.
  • The ASX 200 rose 36.10 points, or 0.49%, to 7,364.70.
  • Kospi rose 0.73 points or 0.03% to 2463.35.
  • SENSEX closed
  • Nifty50 closed

Today was a mixed day for the major Asian currency markets:

  • AUDUSD fell 0.01366 or -2.03% to hit 0.65904.
  • NZDUSD fell 0.00819 or -1.32% to hit 0.61121.
  • USDJPY rose 1.25 or 0.92% to hit 137.160.
  • USDCNY rose 0.04449 or 0.64% to hit 6.99429.

Precious metals:

  • Gold fell by $32.13/t. or -1.74% to 1,814.72
  • Silver fell by $0.967/t. ounces or -4.59% to 20.075

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Trade balance (USD) (February) increased from 78.01 billion to 116.88 billion.

Exports (YoY) (February) increased from -9.9% to -6.8%

Imports (YoY) (February) decreased from -7.5% to -10.2%

Australia:

Retail sales (MoM) increased from -4.0% to 1.9%

RBA interest rate decision (March) increased from 3.35% to 3.60%

The trade balance (January) decreased from 12.237 billion to 11.688 billion.

Some economic news for today:

China:

Foreign exchange reserves (US dollars) (February) decreased from 3.184 trillion to 3.133 trillion.

Hong Kong:

Foreign exchange reserves (US dollars) (February) decreased from 436.50 billion to 429.10 billion.

EUROPE/EMEA:

The European Central Bank should raise interest rates by 50 basis points at each of its next four meetings as inflation appears to be unstoppable, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann said in an interview with German business newspaper Handelsblatt. The ECB has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July and marked a 50 basis point increase in March. He left the door open for the next steps, which he says will be taken “meet after meeting” and will be “data-driven.”

There was a negative day on the main European stock markets:

  • CAC 40 fell 33.94 points or -0.46% to 7,339.27.
  • The FTSE 100 fell 10.31 points, or -0.13%, to 7,919.48.
  • The DAX 30 was down 94.05 points, or -0.60%, at 15,559.53.

Today was a mixed day in the major European currency markets:

  • EURUSD fell 0.01285 or -1.20% to hit 1.05495.
  • GBPUSD fell 0.01945 or -1.62% to hit 1.18265.
  • USDCHF rose 0.01117 or 1.20% to hit 0.94187.

Some economic news from Europe today:

Switzerland:

US unemployment rate (February) fell from 2.2% to 2.1%

Unemployment rate sa (February) remains the same at 1.9%

GREAT BRITAIN:

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (February) was unchanged at 2.1%.

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (February) rose from 0.2% to 1.1%.

Mortgage rate (GBP) (February) increased from 6.66% to 7.02%

Germany:

Manufacturing orders in Germany (MoM) (January) decreased from 3.4% to 1.0%.

USA/AMERICA:

Talk of a soft landing for the US economy no longer seems possible. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said bluntly that interest rates would rise higher than the central bank had originally expected and that the road ahead would be “bumpy.” “If the backbone of the data indicated the need for faster tightening, we would be ready to increase the pace of rate hikes,” Powell added. The last reported terminal rate, granted in December, was 5.1%. Powell did not specify how high the rates could be, but said price stability was a top priority. Many analysts are now predicting that the March FOMC meeting could push stocks above 50 basis points, but Powell said all decisions will be made “meet after meeting” as new data becomes available.

US Market Closing:

  • The Dow was down 574.98 points, or -1.72%, at 32,856.46.
  • The S&P 500 was down 62.05 points, or -1.53%, at 3,986.37.
  • The Nasdaq fell 145.4 points, or 1.25%, to 11,530.33.
  • Russell 2000 fell 21.03 points or -1.11% to 1878.72.

Closing the Canadian Market:

  • The TSX Composite was down 239.26 points, or -1.17%, at 20,275.54.
  • The TSX 60 was down 15.29 points or -1.24% at 1,219.44.

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa was down 472.39 points, or -0.45%, at 104,227.93.

ENERGY:

Oil markets have had a mixed day today:

  • Crude oil fell $3.193/bbl, or -3.97%, to $77.267.
  • Brent fell $2.998/bbl, or -3.48%, to $83.182.
  • The price of natural gas rose by $0.0916/MMBtu, or 3.56%, to $2.6636.
  • Gasoline fell $0.1083/gallon, or -3.87%, to $2.6882.
  • Heating oil fell $0.0864/gallon, or -2.99%, to $2.8002.

The above data was collected around 4:15 pm EST on Tuesday.

  • Commodity growth leaders: natural gas (3.56%), orange juice (3.88%), oats (5.14%) and lean pigs (1.29%).
  • The main losers were platinum (-4.52%), crude oil (-3.97%), gasoline (-3.87%) and silver (-4.59%).

The above data was collected around 4:19 pm EST on Tuesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.501% (-0.3 bp), USA 2 5.01% (+0.117%), USA 10 3.9656% (-1.74 bp); US 30’s 3.88% (-0.034%), Bunds 2.700% (-2.7 bp), France 3.196% (-4.3 bp), Italy 4.521% (-5.2 bp), Turkey 11.53% (-9 bp), Greece 4.508% ( -1.1 bp), Portugal 3.585% (-3.1 bp); Spain 3.74% (-2.8 bp) and UK gilts 3.849% (-1.7 bp).



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