To Estimated risk per 03/03/2023 16:08:00
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Railway time indicators. Charts and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Coal, chemicals, and grain combined account for more than half of US non-intermodal rail traffic. When all three fail, it is highly likely that the total number of wagons will drop as well. Here’s what happened in February 2023 compared to February 2022: the total number of wagons decreased by 15,101 wagons, or 1.6%..
US Intermodal traffic fell 8.4% in Februaryhis 12th consecutive recession.
Click on the graph to enlarge the image.
This chart is from Report “Time indicators on the railway” shows the average number of railcars in the US for six weeks in 2021, 2022 and 2022:
The total number of railcars shipped to the US in February 2023 was 905,744, down 1.6%, or 15,101 railcars, from February 2022. month), but otherwise February 2023 was the lowest wagon loading volume on our records since 1988.
The second chart shows an average of six weeks (not monthly) US intermodal shipping in 2021, 2022, and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):
Intermodal shipments that are not included in wagons were 943,979 in February 2023, down 8.4% from February 2022, or 86,351 containers and trailers. February 2023 weekly average due to labor disputes in West Coast ports).
The 8.4% year-on-year decline in February was the 12th consecutive drop and the largest percentage decline in those 12 months.